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Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Obama: On the Brink of Danger?

Lexicographers ages hence may well look to the word 'deficit' and deem it to have entered common, new-age parlance from around 2008 A.D. It's as prevalent now as were the terms 'easy money', 'fat cats' and 'de-regulation' so reminiscent of the hedonistic era of Thatcherism in the 1980/1990s (Kenneth Clarke should feel quite at home in his newly appointed position as Tory shadow business secretary, notwithstanding Labour's current tenure).

The scale of the current banking deficit means that world governments are collectively having to raise a reported 1 million, billion dollars of taxpayers' money to recapitalize banks to promote even greater spend (debt) among average householders - under the guise of developing the business economy. Meanwhile, according to latest ONS figures published last week, Britain's goods trade deficit with the rest of the world stretched to £8.3bn in November - its widest margin since records began more than 300 years ago. It bears testimony to the criticism of the country as a failed manufacturing and increasingly reliant, service-based economy.

Reputation deficit, however, is a term rarely, if ever, used. It's what I would describe as the shortfall between what communities expect from an organisation - or individual -on the one hand, versus what that company or individual is ultimately willing - or able -to deliver. And yes. It too is measurable.

Too large a gap creates a toxic void that can develop dramatically without warning or it can evolve imperceptibly to corrode any goodwill towards a business, individual or regime. If left unchecked, it can mean the end of careers and personal ambition, or the collapse of any future legitimacy to operate. Obvious examples include the impeachment of Bill Clinton, the forced resignation of Richard Nixon, the abolition of apartheid, the dissolution of Arthur Anderson in the wake of Enron and dismantling of the Berlin wall.

Today marks a truly historic day in America's inauguration of its first black African-American President, Barack Obama. Backed by 92% of black American votes and by international credibility and appeal that transcends global religious and geographic divides, the hopes of so many in the world rest on his promise today to help ''remake America''.

Yet he, too, despite his considerable store of goodwill, stands precariously at the edge of a reputational abyss. Amidst the ''gathering clouds and raging storms'' of an economy in the grip of its most severe recession since the Great Depression, with a budget deficit projected to exceed $1 trillion this year, with two costly wars being waged and the American health and welfare systems under perilous strain, Barack Obama may well find the public's initial euphoria short-lived without swift, positive action and some early economic 'wins'.

For here, at the one end of the reputation scale, is the weight, calibre and values of the individual; at the other the sensitivity and enormity of the political issues faced. It may require that the American people find it in their hearts to rise above any immediate, personal concern and give him a fair chance to succeed for the scales not to tip against him - and generate his own reputation deficit before he's even off his olympian-size starting blocks. As his advisor, I would recommend that reasonable patience be his repeat, key message to the outside world if he is to overcome this first goodwill challenge to this much-needed, new era Presidency.

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